After Turks voted for constitutional reform in mid-September, a new chapter can be opened in negotiations on Turkey's accession to the EU. Since October 2005, the EU and Turkey have been negotiating on ies such as customs and trade union, human rights, press freedom and copyright law. But a date for accession is far from in sight.
Those who want to join the EU must apply European jurisprudence. A total of 35 legal chapters are being reviewed, and twelve have already been successfully concluded. In the Turkey question the heads of state and government of the 27 European Union states are however everything else than united. Most support comes from the U.K. "This is one thing I am very passionate about," Prime Minister David Cameron said in a speech to the Turkish Chamber of Commerce in Ankara this summer. "I want us to build a road from Ankara to Brussels." For the British head of government, opponents of Turkish EU membership are biased and are missing out on enormous economic benefits.
No one questions the market relevance of accession. Even Greece, Portugal or Spain would be interested in trade facilitation with Turkey, despite competition in many sectors ". "The sticking point remains the Cyprus conflict," says Andreas Marchetti, a Turkey expert at the Center for European Integration Studies in Bonn. Since 1974, Turkey has occupied the north of Cyprus and recognized only the southern part as a sovereign state. Goods from Cyprus may not be imported through Turkish seaports or airports. Eight negotiating chapters for accession are blocked until Turkey gives in.
Germans and French weighty opponents of accession
Among the biggest skeptics with regard to Turkey's EU accession are Germany and France. They would rather enter into a privileged partnership with the country. At a meeting with Turkish government representatives in Brussels, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (FDP) argued that negotiations should not be shortened to membership: "As Europeans, we are well advised to develop these relations fairly and intensively. We will see what the outcome is in the end."
Germany is one of the few countries where Turkey's integration capacity is vehemently doubted, says Turkey expert Marchetti. "This is a German debate, especially with regard to religion. In a Catholic country like Poland, this does not matter." The Czech Republic, Bulgaria or the Baltic States also have few problems with Turkey and are pushing for rapid accession.
Long list of human rights violations
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is going to great lengths to meet EU requirements. Verfangsreform aims to inject new momentum into negotiations. "The government is moving because it wants to be in the EU," says Barbara Lochbihler, a Green Party member of the European Parliament. But the long list of human rights violations does not cast a good light on the Turkish government.
Aid organizations report abuse in prisons, sexual violence against women and girls, discrimination against homosexuals. Only at the beginning of September, the European Court of Human Rights condemned Turkey for complicity in the murder of journalist Hrant Dink by far-right nationalists. It is not enough that the death penalty and torture have been abolished by law, says Lochbihler. "Turkey must make more of an effort."
According to experts, neither the EU nor Turkey will break off accession negotiations. Nevertheless, membership seems a long way off. In November, EU Enlargement Commissioner Fule publishes next progress report. It will not be the last.