With volkswagen’s foreseeable withdrawal from the natural gas market, the times ahead for natural gas as a fuel alternative to gasoline and diesel are tough. Does CNG still have a chance?
(image: florian pillau)
- Martin franz
In principle, natural gas as an alternative to gasoline and diesel is a great intermediate step toward significantly reducing emissions quickly. But to say that German customers have never rewarded this to any great extent would be a gross understatement. In 2019, 7623 new cars with natural gas drive were sold in this country, a drop of almost 30 percent. Does CNG (compressed natural gas) still have a chance??
Without passion .
Well, it’s well known that the opera is only over when the fat lady stops singing. But the voice is no longer all that strong, because no vehicle manufacturer is still pursuing the issue with any passion. Volkswagen announced a major natural gas initiative in may 2017, numerous new models were to appear, flanked by the plan to create a network of around 2000 CNG filling stations throughout Germany. Three years later, there is nothing left of it, for which the volkswagen group is certainly not solely to blame.
But part of the drama is undoubtedly down to the Group’s strategy. The CNG drive in the audi A4 and A5 started with a huge delay. The VW polo TGI (test) was hardly on the market when it leaked out that volkswagen would be increasing the size of its natural gas tank within a year. The smallest natural gas drive is now only offered in the VW up, while seat and skoda now offer the mii and citigo exclusively as e-cars. If the subsidies from industry and taxpayers for e-cars are included, a VW eco up with natural gas drive is more expensive than an e-up (test), which makes it easy to say what will remain of it in the medium term: there won’t be one. Regardless of how large the cut of the potential buyer group is.
. And a tailwind
None of this has certainly provided any tailwind for volkswagen’s major natural gas initiative. the final death blow came at the beginning of march 2020. Volkswagen complains about a lack of customer response to natural gas cars and announces that the current models will therefore no longer have successors. If the market leader can’t make the business profitable, it will be even more difficult for the smaller suppliers.
natural gas models (10 pictures)
the picture on the car exchanges shows just how dominant volkswagen is. If the market leader and its group brands are eliminated, an estimated 95 percent of the supply of new cars and daily registrations will disappear. Fiat is still involved with a few models, opel dropped out in 2019, mercedes already years ago. Although the tiny proportion of new car customers who swear by natural gas is now spread among even fewer suppliers, the number of new customers is growing. But the pie is so small that no one can build a profitable business from it anyway.
Inclined plane as accelerator
With the withdrawal of volkswagen, the situation of the gas stations will finally get on a slippery slope, which will accelerate the slide. There are just over 800 filling stations left in Germany, and even the most optimistic will presumably have given up hope of reversing this trend. Natural gas in cars is a thing of the past, the only question is how long its death will last.
With the end of the new car supply just around the corner and a stock of just under 100.000 vehicles it could still take a while. But more than ever, the concept lacks the crucial ingredient: the future. But if this is lacking, interested buyers who are wavering will not go for natural gas. But it’s precisely these buyers who are needed to bring the CNG idea to the masses. The chance of this happening is rapidly approaching zero. The large-scale electrolysis project in brunsbuttel for the production of synthetic gases will cover other areas of energy supply, but the course has long been set in a different direction in the transport sector.
Natural gas advantages
And yet the approaches were quite promising. Natural gas can be produced synthetically. audi had commissioned a corresponding plant together with the promise to feed the corresponding amount of synthetic natural gas into the grid for every kilogram that natural gas audis fill up with. CNG could thus take a step toward decarbonization and fill the gaps currently left by electric cars. This would be the case, for example, if a frequent driver had to cover long distances quickly. But this clientele is opting for diesel engines or, more recently, plug-in hybrids, because of the tax incentives they enjoy. Natural gas was and is hardly a topic here.
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