The way is clear: e-mobility to play a major role in the success of the traffic turnaround
The challenge with the study situation is, as so often: you have to look closely at what has been studied. Is it the local emissions of the drive? The pollutants produced over the entire life cycle – from production to scrapping or recycling? Is it a question of whether e-drives are more climate-friendly than burners – or how much more climate-friendly they are? But experts agree on one thing: without electric vehicles, there will be no sustainable mobility in the future.
"the technology is at the cutting edge, and the market has already embraced it," explains professor henning kagermann, chairman of the national platform for the future of mobility. "it’s irreversible that we have to move away from the internal combustion engine," says michael ewert, executive vice president global sales original equipment at tire manufacturer michelin (see interview). That doesn’t mean e-drive is the only alternative, but it is the most popular one at the moment. "We are open to all technologies and support car manufacturers in their efforts to make mobility more climate-friendly, regardless of the path taken," says ewert. michelin is showing what this can look like, for example, in its collaboration with volvo.
sustainability meets technology
The automaker has set itself the goal of turning its back on internal combustion engines by 2030. This puts volvo ten years ahead of the alliance of some 30 states, municipalities and companies (including volvo) that agreed at the climate conference in glasgow to "work together to ensure that all sales of new cars and minibuses in general by 2040, and in leading markets
will be emission-free no later than 2035," as the statement says. "in germany, about 20 percent of the energy we use goes into car traffic. And this energy is around 95 percent fossil fuel. So we have to do something," says lutz stiegler, solution manager electric propulsion at volvo.
But the development of e-cars is not just a question of propulsion. Other parts need to be adapted as well – tires, for example. That’s why volvo works with its suppliers at an early stage of development. But vehicle development is only one side of the story, says stiegler. "how quickly electromobility becomes established will depend on how the topic of charging stations is pushed."ewert takes a clear position: "it would be a sign of poverty if the charging infrastructure were to fail."
Mobility as an overall concept
But do the framework conditions fit? The federal government has successfully subsidized the issue, says kagermann. One example: "in the private sector alone, the political sector has around 620.000 wallboxes promoted. That is already a success."but if the goal is to have a nationwide charging infrastructure in germany by 2025, other players will also be needed: carmakers, manufacturers of charging stations, network providers that lay cables and mineral oil companies that develop new filling stations.
"it’s about a new overall concept for mobility. All stakeholders must play their part," says stiegler. Not forgetting digitalization. "It’s not just the drive system that will determine the future, but also software development," says kagermann. New players are already entering the market, such as google and apple, which are developing cars. michelin is already adapting to the growing need for connectivity. "we are equipping all tires with RFID chips by 2024 to establish connectivity," says ewert. "we are currently experiencing a surge in innovation. We’re already on the right track with e-cars."
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From automakers to suppliers: what the shift to e-mobility means for suppliers and manufacturers
The supplier’s view
Is executive vice president global sales original equipment at tire manufacturer michelin
what impact will e-drives have on tire development and production??
To what extent does noise play a role??
What role do recycling and the circular economy play??
Right of way for e-cars
"germany still has some catching up to do. But a lot has happened in the last year or two with regard to electromobility."
alexander klein, vice president development of climate and environmental financial products for corporates, kfw
The car is still the german’s favorite child. Whether mercedes, VW or BMW – your own car stands for freedom, joie de vivre and mobility. However, transport is a major contributor to overall CO2 emissions and thus to global warming. That’s why the transformation of the mobility sector must succeed. This means the end for diesel and gasoline.
But how far along is germany on the way to getting there? "When it comes to the switch to e-mobility, we’re not far behind the rest of the world," says futurologist sven gabor janszky in the DUP digital business talk. "germany still has some catching up to do. But a lot has happened in the last year or two in terms of electromobility," says alexander klein, vice president development of climate and environmenal financial products for corporates at the development bank kfw in frankfurt am main. "We are not yet where we want to be, but we are on our way. We expect to invest 150 billion euros in the mobility revolution over the next 30 years."
Markus emmert, executive director of the bundesverband emobilitat, points out: "We’re talking aboutCO2-free mobility. This means that we need to invest just as much in the expansion of renewable energies. Because without them, the traffic turnaround cannot succeed."
More smaller e-models needed
Interest in e-mobility must also be awakened among broader sections of society. The kfw energy turnaround barometer – an annual survey by the development bank of around 4.The 2021 survey of the current and future use of energy-saving technologies by more than 1,000 households showed that "the greater proportion of those who buy an electric vehicle belong to higher-income households," says klein.
"the charging infrastructure absolutely has to include e-scooters and e-bikes."
markus emmert, member of the board of management, bundesverband emobilitat
If the entire transport system is to be electrified, however, everyone has to be taken along for the ride, klein continues. The vehicles are so expensive at the moment, he says, because investments are being made primarily in high-class models such as suvs& co. Emmert emphasizes that investments will be made. "we need to ensure that many more smaller models are fully electrified as well." these would then become affordable for low-income households given the high subsidies.
E-cars for identity management
Future researcher Janszky explains the success of more expensive cars such as Tesla by saying that the upper car segment falls into an area "that we call identity management. Attributes such as "best quality" or "highest price" have moved into the background. The customer’s desire to express a positive identity with a vehicle is becoming stronger. products, corporate and personal brands are gaining weight as identity carriers. "we want to show that we are something special," says janszky.
"the high-end car segment falls into an area we call identity management."
sven gabor janszky, futurologist
The classic manufacturers would only have served two identities in order to be able to show: "I’m rich" and "I like to race". Tesla buyers today, however, want to demonstrate that they are quiet and "eco" – and they want to present their Silicon Valley mindset. Emmert says: "Tesla has managed to turn a car into a lifestyle product." and klein adds: "that sounds like the apple story."
Broad-based charging infrastructure
Despite all the enthusiasm for e-cars, however, the experts also warn against focusing exclusively on electrification. "We will not achieve the traffic turnaround and the climate targets simply by switching from gasoline and diesel to electrification. The charging infrastructure must also include e-scooters and e-bikes, for example," says emmert. In the future, mega-cities in particular will be forced to push cars out of city centers. "otherwise we’ll just be stuck in traffic."
Janszky predicts: "there will still be cars in the centers in 2030, but there will be much less private cars." it would increasingly be robo-taxi fleets, i.e. vehicles that drive autonomously. There are already three approved fleets of robo-taxis in regular operation worldwide; in munich, one will start test operations next year. Such offerings would shape cityscapes in 2030.
Mobility roundtable: experts provide insights into the future of mobility
And this could also save money: according to tesla’s calculations, the cost of traveling a distance by private car is around five times higher than using a robo-taxi. Futurologist janszky: "We need this low-cost alternative and must do everything we can to make it available as quickly as possible."then the social and political discussions about limiting the use of private cars in cities would also be easier. For emmert, the way to achieve this is through the electrification of private vehicles. However, this must also be accompanied by new traffic concepts and a significant improvement in local public transport.
Removing bureaucratic hurdles
However, there are many obstacles to this in germany. Example: planning approval procedures, for example for the laying of new rail lines. In germany, this would take "tens of years, whereas in china it only takes half a year," says emmert.
Kfw expert klein goes one step further when it comes to electrification: "i would also sit in a plane cab if i could work in it on the way to the office."
Development loans for green investments
is vice president development of climate and environmental financial products for corporates at kfw
SMEs that make green investments receive loans from the kfw at almost zero cost and a climate subsidy of three percent. Alexander klein from kfw explains the program – and points out a new subsidy for charging points.
Some countries, such as norway, are far ahead of germany in the electrification of transport. To catch up and meet climate targets, politicians are digging deep into the public purse. With interest rates close to zero percent on promotional loans and subsidies, SMEs should also be able to convert more quickly. Alexander klein, who develops subsidy programs for companies at kfw, explains the details.
kfw supports companies on their way to greater sustainability as part of the "climate protection campaign for small and medium-sized enterprises. Who is eligible for this funding?
For which measures are these credits available?
And what do the loans cost??
So the entrepreneurs get money for free?
Let’s be specific: what does the bill look like if a company buys three electric service vehicles for its fleet for a total of 100 euros?.000 euro buys?
Goes even more support?
How entrepreneurs apply for a kfw loan?
Mobility goes in a completely different direction
germany’s industrial heartland is undergoing a transformation of historic dimensions. The automotive industry is forging new paths – with its own momentum, but also driven by external impulses. Although manufacturers have come out of the pandemic-related crisis better than expected, challenges remain.
Starting with supply chains: the pandemic has highlighted their volatility – and even the economic upswing cannot hide the resulting problems, i.e. the lack of availability of important raw materials. According to the consulting firm alix partners, the chip shortage alone will lead to a production shortfall of up to four million vehicles in europe. In addition, the two megatrends of sustainability and digitalization continue to dominate, and carmakers and suppliers alike must face up to them.
carmakers or software companies?
All the factors together are accelerating the transformation. In practice, questions arise: whether it still makes sense to produce cars with internal combustion engines, whether the sole focus on e-mobility is the right one, what role do synthetic fuels play and where can green hydrogen be used?.
"what do you think about climate protection??"this has long since become a key issue for the industry. Whether or not, on the other hand, has long since ceased to be a matter for discussion. This is ensured by legal regulations and the public interest.
The second decisive factor: will carmakers still be needed in the future, or will software companies be more in demand?? Or will the fusion of the two ultimately be the most effective?? Because networking, intelligent assistance systems, autonomous driving, digital business models: all these aspects will determine success in the future. Especially against the backdrop of new players who – often technology-driven – have set out to disrupt a market that was once thought to be distributed.
The sharing economy and trends such as urbanization and a different need for consumption are doing their bit to force the change on the customer side as well. This is a challenge for the major automotive companies as well as their counterparts on the technology side – the start-ups -, the scientific community and, of course, the politicians who are setting the framework.
Trend 1: autonomous driving and flying
Autonomous driving is no longer a vision of the future, but part of our reality. Many car owners are already familiar with the first stage of autonomy, assisted driving, from everyday practice. From lane departure warning and brake assist systems to automatic parking and cruise control, all of this belongs to the category of autonomous driving. In principle, a distinction is made between five levels: assisted, partially automated, highly automated, fully automated and finally autonomous. And the latter is already being tested in many places around the world.
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