An honest calculation shows: electric cars are not enough for climate-neutral mobility. if transport policy continues on the purely technical path, we will miss all climate targets.
germany is now the "european champion of e-mobility. at the end of january, the association of the german automotive industry commented on the 2020 registration figures with its usual complacency.
Previously, the Federal Motor Transport Authority had already sent out the key message: "electromobility in the fast lane". Every seventh car newly registered in germany was an electric vehicle.
Sensational, the mobility revolution is finally gaining momentum. Is there a happy ending in the underground garage after all?
The regularly circulated reports of new miracle batteries and the first electric car with 1.000 kilometer range from the new chinese automotive star nio. the all-in-one travel and racing car is heading for a sustainable future with a green coat of paint?
It is understandable that in a major crisis, the future is conceived with the on-board resources of the previous thinking system, instead of questioning the entire thinking order. And the mobility crisis is indeed fundamental.
The key words: overheating of the earth, noise, exhaust fumes, particulate matter, accident victims, aggression in road traffic, diesel scandal, land consumption, inhospitable cities clogged with cars.
And: the current emission levels are increasingly narrowing the margins – we have to put the pedal to the metal when it comes to changing course.
Mobility in the years 2030 and 2050 must function with greatly reduced and ultimately zero carbon dioxide emissions. CO2 equal to zero! With this target in mind, the problem lies like a tank barrier on the road.
even the paris climate targets for 2030 are no longer achievable if the current trend is extended. a linear extrapolation from zero traffic emissions in 2050 to today’s 163 million tons (2019) is "difficult", BDI president Dieter Kempf recently explained and "learning curves of technology" promised.
But: is it possible at all with a purely technical solution?? Are tesla and the chinese companies, which german carmakers are enviously following, the model for the future?? A principled "business as usual" is the order of the day and we still achieve the climate goals?
Transport planning far short of the climate target
So let’s calculate backwards. Let’s assume a 40 percent reduction in CO2 by 2030, as decided by the federal government. The EU is demanding even more ambitious targets.
And now let’s take a look at the federal transport infrastructure plan. What’s happening there? the volume of motorized travel by people and goods is not questioned at all. It should continue to increase and increase.
The most extreme figure is the 39 percent growth in road freight transport by 2030 compared with the base year 2010, as assumed in the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan. Annual growth rate: three percent, including further road expansion.
How can road freight transport save 40 percent of climate emissions with this rapid growth?? There are neither overhead lines nor efficient battery operation in long-distance freight transport.
Helmut Holzapfel
heads the center for mobility culture in kassel. Until 2015, the civil engineer, urban planner and transport scientist was a professor at the Institute of Transportation at the University of Kassel. His new book on the mobility revolution is called "urbanism and traffic".
Even the recently hyped hydrogen does not offer any serious prospects for large-scale use in the truck fleet by 2030, especially since an enormous amount of energy is lost in the conversion of the green electricity used. This applies even more to synthetic fuels, even if they are called "eco-fuels" be christened.
And even if, by some small miracle, reasonable solutions for newly registered electric trucks were to be found in the form of hydrogen or batteries, the extra kilometers would eat up the progress made by a slowly changing vehicle fleet.
In air traffic, which has now been thwarted by corona, politicians are even assuming growth rates of five percent in passenger volume and flight kilometers. And they have done nothing so far to stop this development.
Passenger car traffic is also set to increase further – by one percent each year. This means that all the signposts are set to "full speed ahead for motorized transport.
The dumping prices for fuel are a perfect fit. In recent years, this has become cheaper and cheaper in relation to other fuels, because it has risen less than the price of bus and train tickets. Currently, it is so cheap that plug-in hybrids prefer to drive to the gas station rather than charge electricity.
The ridiculous CO2 tax of 25 euros per ton has increased the price of fuel by a homeopathic dose of seven to eight cents. As a cushion, however, the environmentally harmful commuter allowance was promptly increased so that car traffic would not suffer.
A transport policy that relies exclusively on the simple change of drive from fossil to electric, which is also slowed down and lacks momentum, must fail at the outset because of its limitations and its unrestrained growth thinking. It misses the climate targets by a long way.
The madness with hybrid "electric cars
Plug-in hybrid vehicles, which can run on both fossil fuels and electricity, are a good example of how counterproductive transportation policy is.
In the statistics, they appear as electric vehicles and are also lavishly subsidized accordingly. Real-world driving shows this class of vehicles to be climate-damaging horsepower monsters – including a conspicuously large number of suvs – which are predominantly fossil-fuel vehicles.
In many vehicles, the charging cable is still in its original packaging and unused in the trunk. The results of a study (ifeu, oko-institut, transport& environment) published data reveal the whole disaster.
Two-thirds of plug-in cars can’t even cover 50 kilometers on their alibi electric drive system. More than three quarters are service vehicles that travel long distances in purely internal combustion mode.
With a martial performance averaging 281 hp and 1.956 kilograms in weight, these vehicles consume an average of 6.5 to 8.0 liters of fuel, and up to eleven liters at peak times. Even if the cars run on electricity with a full battery, at higher speeds and strong acceleration the combustion engine is switched on.
The study’s assessment is correspondingly harsh: "For an average plug-in hybrid in 2030, there will be around 130 grams of CO2 emissions per kilometer in real terms, while the average fleet value to be achieved is around 60 grams."
In other words, the boom in plug-in hybrids, which will account for more than half of the new electric cars registered in 2020, is jeopardizing all climate targets.
These vehicles are not only among the most powerful, but also among the largest and heaviest cars, they come in an environmentally friendly guise, but only fuel the old paradigm of the climate-damaging colossus. Environmental bonuses for overweight and performance-boosting plug-in hybrids are not misguided, they are government-subsidized insanity.
CO2 savings three-quarters hot air
Back to Kempf’s recalculation. Even if we take a very optimistic view, assuming further technical progress and an offensive by the railroads, it is obvious that the CO2 reduction in transport by 2030 will be in the single digits at most, instead of the targeted and necessary 40 or 50 percent.
After overcoming the corona crisis, traffic will continue to grow in germany with a renewed increase in kilometers driven by cars and trucks, unless decisive countermeasures are taken. We are talking about 20 percent additional tonne-kilometers for trucks by 2030, and ten percent growth for cars.
Can the new electric drives, even if they are implemented more decisively than before, compensate for this growth?? Can they not only balance it out, but also bring about the urgently needed steep decline guaranteeing the emissions curve?
Manfred kriener
Belongs to the founding generation of the daily newspaper taz and is an environmental journalist in berlin. Last year, he published the book "lecker-land ist abgebrannt" ("delicious land has burned down") published by hirzel.
Every honest observer knows the answer: no.
Electric cars are generally more CO2-efficient than fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. But a large proportion of their energy will continue to come from fossil sources in the coming years.
Green electricity from wind and sun is also in short supply, and is urgently needed for other sectors as well. And climate emissions are also generated throughout the entire production chain for electric cars and their batteries. The human rights violations in the mining of cobalt and lithium are often accepted enough, as repeated examples show.
Many electric models, such as the two-and-a-half-ton Tesla, weigh even more on the road than their fossil brothers, which are also becoming increasingly bulky. The laws of nature also apply to electric cars: the heavier they are, the more energy is needed to move them.
Let’s be optimistic again and assume that there will be ten million electric cars on German roads by 2030, and let’s also assume that they will save 50 percent CO2 compared to fossil-fuel-powered cars.
In that case, a fleet of 20 percent electric cars would save ten percent of greenhouse gases per kilometer driven. But every additional kilometer driven causes the savings to melt away again. With ten percent more car kilometers, we are back to zero savings.
Transport must become more expensive
It is clear that the existing traffic paradigm with its permanent growth and the distance-intensive behavior of people must be radically rethought.
It is not enough just to change the technology. We really need to get down to the mileage. The planet’s energy and resilience are not sufficient for the increasingly distance-intensive travel of people and goods, even if we were to go fully electric by 2050.
This also means: road construction as before, which gives new space to the kilometer growth rates, no longer has a future. And: a considerable increase in the price per kilometer is unavoidable.
Environmental groups and the Greens caused a wave of outrage years ago with their demand for an ecologically honest fuel price of five marks per liter. Currently, a study by the austrian automobile club oAMTC calculates with four euros per liter of fossil fuel, if a rethinking is really to begin.
Fewer cars, fewer trucks, fewer miles driven – these are the ingredients of a true mobility revolution. The number of kilometers we travel is neither a measure of prosperity nor can it be a permanent indicator of economic growth.
In the cities, individual measures are no longer enough; here, too, a new mobility order is needed as part of a federal mobility act.
it won’t work without a different layout, with new rights to public spaces and to urban culture. With right of way for emission-free movement on foot or by bike. Fewer motorized vehicles will immediately improve the quality of life in cities groaning under the burden of cars.
Conclusion: climate targets and mobility turnaround cannot be achieved with technology alone. Technology, behavior, prices, right-of-way rules, city planning – many things need to change.
Our idea of the good life, too. It depends on many things, as we are experiencing in the pandemic, but certainly not on the amount of kilometers traveled.